OddsUp simulates every game on the board 25,000 times before it starts, then shows you where our numbers disagree with the sportsbook. This page explains what you are looking at. We are not a sportsbook — we take no wagers and pay nothing out. You place your own bets, at your own book, with your own money.
Pick your sport. The MLB / NFL / NBA switcher sits at the top of every screen. It changes the whole app — board, slot machine and player props all follow it. NBA joins for the 2026–27 season.
Four tabs. Dashboard is the day at a glance, showing both sports at once. Spin is the slot machine. Advanced is every game in depth. Account is billing and your login.
Choose a leg count — 2, 3, 5 or 7 — and spin. The machine builds a slip from the strongest picks on that day's board.
It is weighted, not random. Legs are drawn in proportion to the model's confidence cubed, so a 70% pick is far likelier to appear than a 55% one. Two spins will not give you the same slip, but both are drawn from the same ranked pool.
Toggles. Turn moneyline, totals or player props on and off to shape what the machine can draw from. On NFL you can also filter by position — tap QB and RB together to build around the quarterback and the backfield.
Your slip is emailed to you. Open it, check it, and place it at whichever sportsbook you use.
Moneyline. Who wins. The model states its own win probability and picks the side where it most disagrees with the price.
Totals. Over or under on runs. Where the model disagrees sharply with the book we publish an ALT line instead — our own threshold rather than the posted one, with the probability we back it at.
RBI. Which hitters drive in a run. Still being measured — see the record for exactly where it stands.
Moneyline and totals, as above.
Anytime touchdown. Any player to score. Measured against FanDuel's own price.
Receiving yards, rushing yards, receptions. Over the posted line.
Passing yards. Built from the quarterback's own attempts and yards per attempt, weighted toward recent form, shrunk toward the league average where his sample is thin, and adjusted for the defense he is facing.
Alt passing touchdowns. A different calculation: the team's projected points give an expected number of touchdowns, that is split by the quarterback's own two-year passing-TD rate, and the result becomes the chance of clearing 0.5, 1.5 or 2.5.
This is the deepest view in the product, and most subscribers never open it.
Tap any game for the full breakdown: projected score, win probability, and every player projection we hold for that matchup.
NFL games add a projected box score — passing yards, passing TDs, receptions, receiving and rushing yards, and anytime-TD probability for every skill player on both sides.
Below it sits the prop board, sorted by how far our number sits from the book's. The biggest disagreements come first, because that is where the model is making its strongest claim.
A percentage is not a promise. 68% means that if this situation happened ten times, we think it hits about seven — and misses about three. A losing pick is not a mistake. It is one of the three.
Same as a weather forecast: 70% chance of rain and a dry day does not make the forecast wrong. What matters is the whole season — if it rained on roughly 70% of those days, the forecaster is excellent. That is how to read our numbers, and how we ask to be judged.
Edge is the disagreement. When the book prices a prop at 51% and we make it 63%, that twelve-point gap is what we are actually selling. It is not a guarantee that the gap is in our favour; it is a statement that we think it is, published in advance so you can check.
Judge it over weeks. Fifteen games is a night. Fifteen games tells you almost nothing. Two hundred graded picks starts to tell you something, which is why the record shows the count next to every number.
Odds and projections refresh through the morning. Lineups land as teams post them, usually about three hours before first pitch, and the board updates seven times a day to catch them.
Each game locks one hour before first pitch. After that its picks are final — they will not change, which is what makes the next morning's grade honest. If a player is scratched after the lock, that leg is voided rather than counted as a loss.
Grading runs at 6am, and the public record updates with it.
The NFL week is built around Thursday night, Sunday, and Monday night — with the bulk of the slate on Sunday afternoon. The league adds games on other days through the season too: Friday, Saturday late in the year, holidays, and international kickoffs in the morning. So the board covers the whole week rather than one day, and whatever is scheduled shows up on it. Lines refresh twice daily through the week.
On gameday the board refreshes more often — including around noon, 3pm and 7pm on Sundays, which is when inactives are announced for each wave of kickoffs. A game shows “Inactives pending” until 90 minutes before its own kickoff.
Rosters rebuild Wednesday morning, after cuts and practice reports. Players on IR or ruled out are removed from the projections entirely.
Every projection is graded the next morning from the official box score and published at oddsupapp.com/reportcard.html — wins and losses together, the whole board, not a selection of the good ones.
The record starts 1 September 2026. Everything before that date was produced by an earlier version of the engine, and publishing it would flatter us with numbers the current model did not earn.
NFL grading begins with Week 1. Until those games are played there is no football record, and we would rather say so than borrow the baseball one.
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